Financial news

Negative Stabilization Has Begun In Russia

29 апреля 2009 г.

Gross national product of Russia in the first quarter also fell to 9, 5 %, informs the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade.

If seasonal fluctuations of the index being excluded, then it comes to hand, that monthly rates of recession were slowed down: in March GNP was 0, 7 % against 1 % in February and 3, 1 % in January of the year 2009. «We obviously have dealing with stabilization, — says Mr. Anton Struchenevsky, the analyst of investment company «Troika Dialogue». — The results of the first quarter reflected last year's recession. Probably, upon the results of April we shall see that banks have started to finance the industry».

The general director of "Finexpertise", Mr. Agvan Michaelyan is positively in tune for: "Anyway, an apocalypse is impossible, — he speaks. — Figures only confirm that we are at the bottom".

The expert predicts that in the second quarter zero growth of the gross national product in comparison with the similar period in year 2008 might take place, then the growth which is expected will become tangible  in the fourth will begin.

However pessimistic forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade make him uneasy: 6–7, 4 % of GDP decrease is forecasted in 2009. As he says, probably, in the ministry they are rather aware, than experts.

In Russia there is a negative stabilization «and we should rather dispel the hope for quiet conditions, — Mr. Vitaly Karbovsky, the analyst of IFC «Solid» is convinced. — «the stone has fallen, but rings in the water haven’t taken a run».

The expert explains: many branches have not felt the total reduction in demand yet, and there are no prerequisites to its revival. By the way: deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Mr. Andrey Klepach declared yesterday, that the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade once again reconsidered the forecast of GDP for 2009. According to him, the second quarter of the year 2009, might become a breaking point in economy.

It will revive due to the growth of budget expenditures and improvement of financing.

According to the ministry of Economic Development and Trade nett GDP in the second quarter might come up to 1, 3-2, 8 % in comparison with the first quarter. But annual results in view of high rates in the second quarter of the year 2008 would be negative as there might be 8, 7-10 %decrease.

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