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The Expert: Russia Will Surmount the Crisis Earlier Than China

09 апреля 2009 г.

Russia will surmount the crisis more promptly and earlier, than all other countries and even will overtake China. Unlike China, Russia is adhered to world economy only as the supplier of raw materials, and China strongly depends on consumption which will be restored not so rapidly. Such opinion was stated by the general director of LLC " FinExpertize "  Mr. Agvan Mikaeljan.

He has explained, that at first the economy should be restored, then – well-beings and at last – the consumption. Changing over within this chain is impossible. « And at this sense I can’t help disagree with Mr.  Victor Khristenko », — the expert has noticed.

Mr. Mikaeljan has noticed that there is a greater threat of plenty Russian origin – a question about the volume of credits, about turnover. Old credit contracts are going short, terminated, and can’ be replaced by new ones by now – and it concerns the large enterprises as well. Under today's conditions to take credits it is unreal and it is unreasonable.

Besides that the expert has noticed, that if now we manage "to strangle" inflation at all, then it will be possible to reduce both the rate of refinancing, the price of credits and to start system of crediting. « But realization of such script, which really would allow to achieve a rate of inflation pretty below 13 %, is possible only by improbable reduction of a standard of living » — the analyst has approved.

« Tighting belts » for about a half of year would promote  the country become pulled out from this falling by prompt rise – but  the current social focused state policy would hardly promote such skyrocketing results.

In Mr. Mikaeljan’s opinion , within one-two months Russian government ought to think over  so called “by-way” for financial flows to be directed just to enterprises, passing by the banks. « I think, that a certain symbiosis of administrative and market measures should become a “toolkit” », — the expert believes.

At the same time the analytics regales: both financiers, and industrialists do positive forecasts at the same time. « It gives a hope that there exist a certain general, consistent vision of problems’ solution, unlike a frequent situation of a divergence in the opinions, arising as a rule, when one uses to measure with money, and another – « in pieces » » — has summarized Mr. Mikaeljan.
 

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