Financial news

Mr. Gref Has Predicted Another Bank Crisis

08 апреля 2009 г.

Bank crisis in Russia only has come to an initial stage. It was declared by the president and chairman of board of the SberBank Mr. Herman Gref. According to him, banks will have troubles because of a collapse in actual sector of economy.

In the end of March, the Minister of Finance Mr. Alexey Kudrin also spoke about probable occurrence of the second wave of crisis. At the same time, the head of the Central Bank, Mr. Sergey Ignatyev noted, that the worst stage for the Russian economy was already passed.

As Mr. Herman Gref's declared, in fact there was no the first wave of bank crisis in Russia, since domestic banks had not been involved into operations with derivative financial tools. It was active trading activity in derivative financial tools that had affected banking in industrialized countries of the world.

It is considered that the new wave of crisis, if it will just happen to be, will occur because of abrupt growth of overdue on debts of the Russian enterprises. According to the Central Bank, by March, 1st, 2009, it did not exceed a mark of 3,1 percent from total amount of credits. By the end of the current year the debts overdue of juridical and physical persons, would become about 10 percent.

In the Ministry of Finance they have already named this forecast actually impracticable since, according to the ministry, the 10 percent level is already passed. The reporting of the Central Bank, in Mr. Alexey Kudrin's opinion, does not reflect a real state of affairs, as banks conceal the original data from a regulator.

Right at the end of March, in Agency on Insurance of Contributions (АIC) there was declared that the quantity of the debts overdue by the end of year might reach 15 percent. And several days earlier in the Alpha-bank they had counted up, that if overdue grew up to 15-20 percent, hundreds of Russian banks would meet bankruptcy.
 

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